Geopolitics 3.0 Podcast: US-Russia Summit, Return of the Western Bloc and China’s Response

NEW : Geopolitics Podcast

Geopolitics Podcast: the Age of Paradox Episode 1

When future historians look back at our age they might think of it as the Age of Paradox. On the one hand we have the pandemic which has slowed down the pace of individual life. On the other we are seeing massive accelerations in politics, economics and technology, that is rapidly changing the shape of international society.

In this new series I will be attempting to survey these accelerations, to understand the shape and structure of the changing world. My plan is to have 3 to 5 episodes per week, while gradually working towards a deeper analysis of an aggregation of these trends every fortnight so.

See the link to the first episode here and the second episode here.

From next week, I will also be launching a newsletter aggregating reports and papers discussed in the series.

The Day After: Navigating a Post-Pandemic World – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Navigating the post-pandemic international landscape will pose an enormous challenge for decisionmakers in boardrooms and situation rooms alike. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has convened its global network of more than 150 scholars from twenty countries and six global centers to produce “The Day After: Navigating a Post-Pandemic World”—a digital magazine that provides grounded, fresh analysis and new approaches to some of the most consequential challenges unfolding before us.
— Read on carnegieendowment.org/publications/the-day-after

Has China Peaked Already? – NOEMA

In November 2006, the Chinese public was held rapt by a 12-part documentary series titled “The Rise of the Great Powers.” Curated by a team of respected Chinese historians, each episode revealed the pathways major empires took to reach the zenith of their global influence, including the United Kingdom, Japan, Russia and the United States. At the time, China was viewed — both at home and abroad — as Asia’s central force and a future superpower, but not the main geopolitical story — especially as the U.S. was in full “hyper-power” mode, deep into its indefinite occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. This was all the more reason for the Chinese to sit back and cautiously study how nations could become so powerful as to extend their might all across the planet. 

“The Rise of the Great Powers” achieved its central objective: to socialize and legitimize the notion that it was China’s turn to rise into the pantheon of history’s superpowers. And China has clearly followed the documentary’s lessons to a tee:
— Read on www.noemamag.com/has-china-peaked-already/

An ‘alliance of democracies’ sounds good. It won’t solve the world’s problems. – The Washington Post

In theory, an alliance of democracies can expand freedom around the world and cooperate on solutions to some of the most challenging global and regional problems. Cobbling together a brand-new alliance of democracies looks good on paper. But in practice, creation of a new Club Democracy would be counterproductive because it would create another fault line between the United States and rival countries who would not qualify for membership but whose cooperation would be necessary to address some of the international system’s most formidable challenges.
— Read on www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/13/biden-pompeo-trump-democracy/

Yuval Harari, Elif Shafak, Dambisa Moyo, Eric Schmidt & Others: How COVID Will Change Us – NOEMA

How will COVID-19 change the world?

We asked:

Yuval Noah Harari, Elif Shafak, Eric Schmidt, Lorraine Daston, Safiya Noble, John Gray, Davide Casaleggio, Onora O’Neill, Jared Diamond, Li Jinglin, Dambisa Moyo, Patrick Soon-Shiong, Pascal Lamy, David Brin, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Bill Joy, Joseph Nye and Bing Song.

Here are their insights.
— Read on www.noemamag.com/yuval-harari-elif-shafak-dambisa-moyo-eric-schmidt-how-covid-will-change-us/

How global value chains will evolve in the post-COVID-19 economy | East Asia Forum

COVID-19 will likely accelerate the move toward ‘peer value chains’ among countries with similar institutional arrangements. In addition to traditional production factors, the quality of domestic institutions may become an important determinant of a country’s comparative advantage. Nathan Nunn conceptualises ‘contract-intensive’ products, which have complex supply chains that involve multiple transactions at various stages of the production process.

Just like a country with an abundant labour force has a comparative advantage in the production of labour-intensive products, the quality of a legal system may determine a country’s international competitiveness in ‘contract-intensive’ products.
— Read on www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/07/how-global-value-chains-will-evolve-in-the-post-covid-19-economy/

The Renewed Dependency on Mercenary Fighters – DER SPIEGEL

Increasingly, governments that are involved in military conflicts are turning not to their own countrymen, but are instead relying on foreigners who they pay as mercenaries. Countries like Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Iran are ignoring other countries’ borders and sovereignty, sending hired guns into foreign countries because they don’t like the regime in charge, because they want access to natural resources – or because mercenaries belonging to their enemies are there. It is yet another example of countries seeking to occupy the vacuum left behind by the accelerating withdrawal of the United States.

Hiring mercenaries is a way of fighting a war on the cheap. Regional actors can go into battle with little risk and at relatively low cost. Leaders can engage in conflict without having to answer for the body count. The fighters themselves, meanwhile, have few protections because of their dependence on their paymasters. Mercenaries are fighting in numerous conflicts around the world, including in Syria, Yemen and Libya.
— Read on www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-renewed-dependency-on-mercenary-fighters-a-226614f9-45b4-4709-9250-7fdd3b9ffdf2

New survey of European public opinion signals trouble for transatlantic alliance – Responsible Statecraft

Amid the ongoing global crisis caused by COVID-19, a new report from the European Council on Foreign Relations has troubling implications for the much-vaunted transatlantic alliance.

The report, released June 29, shows that the present crisis has brought European trust in the United States to an all-time low.

This data caps off several years of decline in European — and particularly Western European — perceptions of the United States in the Trump era.
— Read on responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/06/29/new-survey-of-european-public-opinion-signals-trouble-for-transatlantic-alliance/

Wilson Center Digital Archive

The Digital Archive contains once-secret documents from governments all across the globe, uncovering new sources and providing fresh insights into the history of international relations and diplomacy. The Digital Archive is overseen by the Wilson Center’s History and Public Policy Program and focuses on the interrelated histories of the Cold War, Korea, and Nuclear Proliferation.
— Read on digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/